What is Theory of Change?
by mollypenn
Theory of Change is a process that was developed by the Aspen Institute, to help design programs with an eye towards being able to evaluate their effectiveness. Like logic models (Kellogg Foundation), Theory of Change helps organizations think through what they are trying to achieve, and how they want to make it happen.
The process, in a nutshell, is as follows:
The organization articulates the big, long-term change they seek to bring about in the world through a particular program. For example, more low-income people will become economically self-sufficient). This is called the “above the line” outcome. In otherwords, the program the organization designs will help create the playing field for this outcome, but the outcome ultimately depends also on other factors that are not within the organization’s control. Thus any outcome that involves factors beyond an organization’s control is called “above the line.”
Next, the organization articulates a more concrete outcome that it can and will hold itself accountable for. For example, the percentage of adults who are literate in the xxx area will increase to xx%. In this scenario, the organization has decided literacy is the most important factor in helping make people employable and helping people succeed professionally.
From here, the organization begins to articulate (and verify) the assumptions that underlie its theory of change. In our example, the organization assumes that literacy is a necessary pre-condition to economic self-sufficiency. It also assumes that literacy is the most important pre-condition to economic self-sufficiency (above motivation, or other factors that may contribute to lack of self-sufficiency).
The organization then defines a set of “preconditions” – things that must exist or happen in order for the organization to increase literacy skills. Behind each precondition is a rationale describing why the organization believes this is a necessary precondition, a definition of the precondition, and one or more indicators that can be measured to determine whether the precondition is being met
Finally, the group lists some interventions it will engage in to ensure that the preconditions exist.
In this way, indicators (or measurements) are built into the rationale for the approach to solving the problem. When it comes time to measure outcomes, the process is that much easier because that was considered in designing the solution. This process is called “backwards mapping” – the process of beginning with your long-term goal, and working “backwards” towards the earliest changes that need to occur. And it it different from how planning usually takes place because it asks “what conditions must exist for the long-term goal to be reached?” rather than “what should we do to bring about the outcome?”.
The following is an example of Theory of Change from theoryofchange.org: http://www.theoryofchange.org/process/example.html
Molly Penn has been trained by ActKnowledge (now theoryofchange.org) in facilitating Theory of Change processes.
